What the Bitcoin Cycle tracks

Where BTC sits within its recurring four-year rhythm, using seasonal patterns and the 200-week moving average as a long-term reference. The 200W average has historically acted as the floor of major bear markets, which makes distance from it a rough measure of cycle position.

How to read distance from the 200W

Price far above the 200-week average has historically corresponded to late-cycle conditions, and price at or below it to accumulation phases. The relationship is a tendency across a handful of cycles, not a law — four completed cycles is a small sample to draw hard conclusions from.

How investors use cycle position

For pacing accumulation and distribution over months, not for trade entries. It informs how aggressively to add or reduce, while the decision of when to act on a given day belongs to shorter-horizon tools. Cycles have also stretched over time, so treating past durations as a schedule is a mistake.